Miller and Busch Vulnerable, Hogan Strong in Their Respective Districts
SD 27: August 2 – 5, 2018 (Targeted Creative Communications, IVR)
HD 30A: July 25 – 26, 2018 (Red Maverick Media/Communication Concepts, Live)
Margin of Error: +/- 5.5% (300 likely voters)
Polls were conducted in House District 30A and Senate District 27 in late July and early August. The results they found showed substantial strength for Governor Larry Hogan in Senate President Mike Miller and House Speaker Mike Busch’s districts.
In Senate District 27, Governor Larry Hogan leads Ben Jealous 57% to 28%. In 2014, Governor Hogan received 52% to Anthony Brown’s 46% in that district. Even more telling is the fact that Mike Miller failed to receive 50% of the vote in a direct ballot test with his Republican opponent Jesse Peed. Miller also showed considerable weakness in his name identification test. Governor Hogan’s substantial improvement in the district will likely drive significant coattails down the ballot that could potentially put Senate President Miller and Delegate Michael Jackson at-risk.
In House District 30A, Governor Larry Hogan leads Ben Jealous 71% to 21%. In 2014, Governor Hogan received 58% to Anthony Brown’s 40% in that district. Like in Senate District 27, Governor Hogan’s substantial improvement in the district will likely drive coattails that will put Speaker Busch and Sarah Elfreth at-risk.
The Maryland Republican Party believes that Governor Hogan’s strength in Miller and Busch’s districts provide substantial opportunities and both the Senate President and Speaker should be concerned about their re-election bids.